SKILL.md
Probabilistic Thinking
Core rule: State beliefs as numbers and ranges, not vibes. Anchor on a base rate, update with an explicit likelihood, and bound unknowns by factoring them — never invent false precision.
When to Use
- Timeline, effort, or outcome forecasts where the true value is uncertain.
- Risk sizing for a change, migration, deploy, or launch.
- Any moment you are about to state a confident single number you cannot actually know.
- New evidence arrives and a prior estimate should move.
When NOT to Use
- The quantity is measurable or look-up-able — measure or look it up.
- The decision is invariant across the whole plausible range — skip the estimate and act.
- There is no real reference class and you would invent a base rate — label it a guess, not a calibrated forecast.
- You only need a binary gate and already have a decisive observation — do not pad with ceremony.