SKILL.md
Effectuation
Under Knightian uncertainty, start from available means and affordable loss—not a fixed goal and predicted return. Create the path through controllable action and real commitments.
When to Use
- The market, technology, or problem is novel enough that outcome probabilities are not trustworthy.
- Means are clearer than the goal: identity, skills, assets, and network exist before a fixed target does.
- A small action can buy information or a partner commitment without risking ruin.
- Plans keep breaking because the environment shifts faster than forecasts.
When NOT to Use
- The path is predictable: known market, knowable unit economics, established playbook → use causal planning.
- A single wrong step is ruinous or irreversible → de-risk first; do not treat affordable-loss steps as free.
- The goal is already fixed and resources are the only uncertainty → plan to the goal.
- Routine execution with settled requirements → act; do not re-inventory means.