SKILL.md
Binance Prediction Up/Down
A scaffold for trading recurring BTC Up/Down rounds: a round scheduler, screening gates, a decision contract that compares your probability against the quote, order and settlement handling, redemption, and two offline evaluation harnesses.
Read this first
Every risk control, stake size and threshold here is a suggestion, not a safeguard.
- This skill ships no strategy. The bundled hook is an example that makes the pipeline run; the numbers it reads are ones you measure and supply. The reference signal documented under "Strategy hooks" nets roughly +0.65% per round against a ±1.9pp error bar — a worked example of the bar, not a configuration to copy.
- A hit rate is not an edge. If the market already prices the state your signal keys on, a 58% hit rate earns zero. Only step 3 of the walkthrough can rule that out.
- Positions can expire worthless; max loss per round is the stake. There is no stop-loss to place — the position resolves itself.